News, notes, and observations from the James River Valley in northern South Dakota with special attention to reviewing the performance of the media--old and new. E-Mail to MinneKota@gmail.com

Thursday, May 2, 2013

Call your local bookie: the morning line favorite

Orb:  a blazing Monday workout has made him the Kentucky Derby favorite
The New York Times Account

Times tote board by Joe Drape and Melissa Hoppert









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POSTHORSETRAINERJOCKEYODDS
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1Black OnyxKelly BreenJoe Bravo50-1
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Melissa Hoppert: Won the Spiral Stakes, which was Animal Kingdom’s major prep victory before winning Derby. Don’t expect Black Onyx to do the same. Joe Drape: Long shot was working well, but lost all chance when he ended up with the worst post.

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2OxbowD. Wayne LukasGary Stevens30-1
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MH: Do not count out two great racing veterans, Lukas and Stevens. JD: Looks as if horse peaked in March rather than May.

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3RevolutionaryTodd PletcherCalvin Borel10-1
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MH: Overcame troubled trip in Withers, then held on in Louisiana Derby. No. 3 post is perfect spot for Calvin Bo-Rail. JD: He has had trouble breaking from the gate, but has trained well and will be running late.

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4Golden SoulDallas StewartRobby Albarado50-1
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MH: Finished fourth in Louisiana Derby. Just don’t see him as a threat. JD: He’s won once — back in December.

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5Normandy InvasionChad BrownJavier Castellano12-1
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MH: Troubled trip in Risen Star, but showed in Wood that he can run. Been training well at Churchill. JD: Late charge into a crawling pace looked good at Wood, but his only victory came in November.

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6MyluteThomas AmossRosie Napravnik15-1
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MH: Almost beat Revolutionary in Louisiana Derby, and Napravnik and No. 6 post are on his side. But is he good enough? JD: He has a sprinter’s pedigree and will be staggering down the stretch.

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7Giant FinishTony DutrowJose Espinoza50-1
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MH: The final addition to the field. Finished third in the Spiral, but probably doesn’t belong. JD: No shot.

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8GoldencentsDoug O’NeillKevin Krigger5-1
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MH: Showed his mettle in Santa Anita Derby. With his speed, he has a shot. JD: Can he stalk and pounce? Can his rider stay focused in his first Derby? Many questions.

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9OveranalyzeTodd PletcherRafael Bejarano15-1
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MH: Cruised to 4 1⁄4-length victory in Arkansas Derby, but Vyjack easily dispatched him in Gotham. JD: He’s a quality colt and has looked good since arriving at Churchill. Arkansas Derby was slow, though.

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10Palace MaliceTodd PletcherMike Smith20-1
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MH: Finished second in Blue Grass two weeks after troubled trip in Louisiana Derby. Has had chance to break through. JD: This one has gotten better every race, sort of like his daddy, Curlin. He’s green but dangerous.

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11Lines of BattleAidan O’BrienRyan Moore30-1
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MH: Nice win in the UAE Derby in Dubai, but he just got to Churchill and has never won on dirt. JD: He’s bred for the dirt and the marathon distance.

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12ItsmyluckydayEddie Plesa Jr.Elvis Trujillo15-1
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MH: Set track record in Holy Bull and looked solid in losing to Orb in Florida Derby. Has been thriving since he got to Louisville. JD: The stalker is fast, fit and seasoned. Say hello to your Derby winner.

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13Falling SkyJohn Terranova IILuis Saez50-1
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MH: Third in Tampa Bay Derby, but he’s going to be lost against this field and at this distance. JD: This speedster will set the pace, but little more.

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14VerrazanoTodd PletcherJohn Velazquez4-1
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MH: Undefeated colt was finally tested in Wood and prevailed. Has not been very impressive in Churchill workouts. JD: Can he get the mile-and-a-quarter distance? His daddy, More Than Ready, could not.

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15Charming KittenTodd PletcherEdgar Prado20-1
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MH: Third in Blue Grass, but again, has never run on dirt. Must be exceptional to make the switch; he’s not. JD: Strong closer, but this is a tough place to make dirt debut.

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16OrbShug McGaugheyJoel Rosario7-2
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MH: Found stride at Gulfstream, winning Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. The talk of the backside, and with good reason. His race to lose. JD: He’s won four in a row in impressive fashion. But too many have already declared him the winner.

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17Will Take ChargeD. Wayne LukasJon Court20-1
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MH: Has not run since winning Rebel on March 16. Don’t think he will regain that form. JD: Hall of Fame trainer has won this race four times. No fifth this year.

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18Frac DaddyKenneth McPeekVictor Lebron50-1
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MH: Second in Arkansas Derby. If the track is muddy, his chances go up, but only slightly. JD: He has won before at Churchill, but I’m not sure that’s enough.

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19Java’s WarKenneth McPeekJulien Leparoux15-1
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MH: Catapulted into Derby picture in thrilling fashion, coming from last to win Blue Grass. But was the performance a fluke? JD: He closed spectacularly in Blue Grass, but looks like a turf horse.

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20VyjackRudy RodriguezGarrett Gomez15-1
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MH: Gelding put up a fight in the Wood and has only one loss. But all his races were at Aqueduct, and he drew an unfortunate post. JD: Hasn’t trained well and drew poorly. Little chance.

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PICKSWINPLACESHOW
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Melissa HoppertOrbGoldencentsItsmyluckyday
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Joe DrapeItsmyluckydayPalace MaliceOrb

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